In Brief - One Concept a Day. This time: The Sunni-Shia Split in Islam (And how does it relate to Israel?)

Nir Topper
Apr 26
3 min read

In 632 CE, the Prophet of Islam, Muhammad, passed away—an event that led to the deepest and most historic rift in the Muslim world, one that continues to this day. The original dispute revolved around the question of who was worthy to lead the Muslim community (the Caliph) following the Prophet's death. The majority, who would later be known as "Sunnis" (derived from the word "Sunnah"—the tradition, meaning following the path of the Prophet's tradition), supported the approach that the leader of the community should be elected from within it based on his qualifications and by broad consensus. Conversely, a minority group strongly argued that the leadership must remain within the bloodline of the Prophet's family, starting with his cousin and son-in-law, Ali ibn Abi Talib. This group became known as "Shi'atu Ali" (the faction of Ali), or in short—Shia. Over the years, this political split regarding leadership deepened and transformed into a religious, theological, and cultural divide, creating separate traditions, religious laws, and worldviews.

Today, out of nearly two billion Muslims worldwide, the absolute majority—about 85% to 90% (approximately 1.7 billion people)—are Sunni. The Sunni world spans the entire globe, with the largest countries in terms of Muslim population being Indonesia, Pakistan, and Egypt, while Saudi Arabia is considered the religious and political leader of this camp. In contrast, Shias constitute only about 10% to 15% of all Muslims (approximately 200 to 250 million people). This camp is mostly concentrated in Asia and the Middle East, with Iran being the leading power and the undisputed patron of the Shia world. Other significant Shia concentrations are found in Iraq and Bahrain (where they form a demographic majority), Azerbaijan, and Lebanon.

For the State of Israel, this ancient rift is not merely a chapter in history, but a daily geopolitical reality that shapes its security, its alliances, and its social fabric. Within Israel's borders, the absolute majority of Muslim citizens (as well as the Palestinians in Judea and Samaria and in Gaza) belong to the Sunni branch. On the other hand, the primary security and strategic threat to Israel in recent decades has been led by the Shia "Axis of Resistance," which includes Iran, Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen, and Shia militias in Iraq and Syria. Hamas, which is supported by Shia Iran, is actually a Sunni organization—and the connection between them is often described as a "marriage of convenience" based on shared interests, rather than an ideological affinity. For Iran, supporting a Sunni organization like Hamas also serves its ambition to present itself as the leader of the entire Muslim world, and not just the Shia camp.

Remarkably, from a historical perspective, the shared desire to prevent Shia-Iranian hegemonic expansion in the region has been one of the key factors accelerating an unprecedented rapprochement between Israel and moderate Sunni Arab states over the past decade. This alliance of interests, alongside American incentives and shared economic and technological aspirations, laid the groundwork for the Abraham Accords and the transformation of the entire Middle East.

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Image - The global distribution of Sunnis and Shias. Source: CC BY-SA 3.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=228250