From the research I've been conducting on Israeli elections, I've tried to trace variables that, in different combinations, create causal relationships to election results. Through this, I've identified a variable that I found to be the most influential on the number of Arab Knesset members elected in each election cycle. Among many variables, such as the electoral threshold, number of competing parties, voting percentage in Arab society, and many more, I discovered that the combination of variables that most significantly predicts an increase or decrease in the number of elected Arab representatives is: the gap between the general population's voting percentage and the Arab society's voting percentage.
The smaller the difference between voting percentages, the greater the number of Arab Knesset members who will serve, and vice versa: the larger the gap between the general society's voting percentage and the Arab society's voting percentage, the smaller the number of Arab Knesset members elected to the Knesset.
Clearly and definitively: If the voting percentage in Arab society rises above 60% (in the last elections it stood at 53%), Arab Knesset members will become the kingmakers and determine the composition of the coalition. This is actually the most dramatic variable with the highest potential for change that can influence the composition of the next coalition.
The data speaks for itself: improving voting percentages in Arab society, thereby reducing the gap from general voting percentages, will significantly increase Arab representation in the Knesset and their political weight.
