The Overt Threat: An Analysis of Iran's Growing Hostility Towards Israel (2023-2025)

Background

The period between mid-2023 and mid-2025 marks a paradigm shift in the Iranian-Israeli conflict, signaling a transition from a "shadow war" based on proxies to a direct and overt military confrontation between the states. This analysis of the Iranian threats against Israel over the past two years aims to demonstrate how Iran has become an existential threat, resolute and equipped with tangible capabilities to inflict severe harm upon Israel.

This analysis is based on three core components of the Iranian threat:

• Direct Military Aggression: Iran has abandoned its policy of denial, launching two unprecedented missile and UAV attacks directly from its territory toward Israel in April and October 2024. These attacks, which included hundreds of ballistic munitions, cruise missiles, and UAVs, constitute a strategic escalation and indicate Tehran's willingness to risk an all-out war.

• Imminent Nuclear Threat: Iran's nuclear program has reached the point of no return. Iran's "breakout time"—the time required to produce enough fissile material for one nuclear bomb—has shrunk to about one week. Iran has enriched uranium to 60% purity and has even approached the military-grade level of 90%, in blatant violation of its commitments and refusing to cooperate with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). A sharp condemnation by the IAEA in June 2025, which was met with Iranian defiance, served as the primary trigger for Israel's "Operation Rising Lion."

• Unyielding Annihilationist Ideology: The military and nuclear threats are rooted in the official and declared ideology of the Iranian regime, which calls for the destruction of the State of Israel. The Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, and commanders of the Revolutionary Guards repeatedly threaten Israel with a "bitter and painful fate" and the opening of the "gates of hell," with these threats consistently backed by military actions.

Part I: The Ladder of Escalation – A Chronology of Direct Confrontation

This section details the sequence of events that shattered the long-standing "rules of the game" of the Iranian-Israeli conflict, demonstrating a clear and deliberate pattern of escalation.

The Status Quo Before 2024: A War in the Shadows

Until 2024, the conflict between Iran and Israel was conducted primarily as a "shadow war."

Iran Crosses the Rubicon: Operation "True Promise" (April 14, 2024)

On the night of April 14, 2024, Iran carried out a direct military attack from its territory against the State of Israel for the first time in history. The attack, dubbed "True Promise" (وعده صادق), included the launch of over 300 munitions: approximately 185 UAVs (mainly Shahed 136/238), 36 cruise missiles (Paveh), and about 110 to 130 ballistic missiles (Emad, Qadr). This attack was unprecedented in its scale, considered the largest UAV attack in history, and marked a fundamental shift in Tehran's strategic doctrine. Although a regional coalition led by the U.S., together with Israel's aerial defense array, intercepted 99% of the threats, the act itself constituted the crossing of a red line and a clear declaration of intent.

The Cycle of Response and Escalation (April – October 2024)

• A Measured Israeli Response (April 19, 2024): Israel responded with a limited strike on an air defense base near Isfahan, a move that demonstrated capability but was designed to prevent a wider war at that time.

• Elimination of Senior Proxies: Later in the year, Israel delivered severe blows to Iran's "Axis of Resistance" with the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran (July 31, 2024) and the assassination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah in Beirut (September 27, 2024). These events were perceived as a critical erosion of Iran's regional defense umbrella.

• Second Iranian Attack (October 1, 2024): In response to the assassinations, Iran launched a second direct attack, involving approximately 180 to 200 ballistic missiles. This attack was also largely intercepted, but several missiles managed to hit sensitive military sites in Israel, including the Nevatim airbase and sites near intelligence headquarters.

• The Israeli Counter-Strike (October 26, 2024): Israel launched "Operation Days of Teshuvah," during which it overtly and systematically attacked Iran's air defense systems and missile production sites. According to reports, the strike destroyed approximately 90% of Iran's missile production capabilities.

The Preemptive Strike: "Operation Rising Lion" (June 12-13, 2025)

Against the backdrop of Iran's accelerated progress toward a nuclear weapon, Israel launched "Operation Rising Lion" (known in Hebrew as "Mivtsa Am KeLavi"), an extensive multi-day aerial campaign. The operation's goal, as defined by the Israeli leadership, was to "erode, destroy, and remove" the immediate threat of a nuclear Iran. The strikes focused on strategic assets:

• The Nuclear Program: Facilities at the Natanz uranium enrichment complex were destroyed, and attacks were reported near the Fordow facility.

• Regime Leadership: Senior officials of the Revolutionary Guards were eliminated, including Commander Hossein Salami, Chief of Staff Mohammad Bagheri, and Aerospace Force Commander Amir Ali Hajizadeh, alongside senior nuclear scientists.

• Iranian Response: Iran responded by launching UAVs and missiles, and we are currently in this campaign.

Hezbollah, Hamas, Iraq, and Yemen - Iran's Global Terror Activation

Iran's main deterrence against an Israeli or American attack relied on the threat of a multi-front war waged by its proxies, spearheaded by Hezbollah's massive rocket arsenal. The elimination of Nasrallah and the severe damage to Hezbollah's leadership effectively removed this protective shield. As Prime Minister Netanyahu clarified, the assessment in Israel was that once Hezbollah was neutralized, Iran would accelerate its nuclear program, leaving Israel to face a nuclear threat without significant conventional deterrence. This insight led to the decision for a preemptive strike against the nuclear program itself in June 2025.

Part II: Explaining the Existential Threat: Nuclear "Breakout Time"

The term "breakout time" describes the minimum period required for a state to produce enough weapons-grade fissile material (highly enriched uranium or plutonium) for a single nuclear bomb. The significance of this concept is critical: under the 2015 nuclear deal (JCPOA), Iran's breakout time was intentionally extended to over a year, granting the world a vital security margin for a diplomatic response. Before the deal, this time was only about two to three months.

The current reality is fundamentally different. In early 2024, Iran's breakout time had effectively shrunk to near zero. An analysis by the Institute for Science and International Security (ISIS) estimated that Iran could produce enough fissile material for its first bomb within a week, and for seven bombs within a month. This means the nullification of any meaningful warning capability and poses an immediate, tangible threat.

Iran's Nuclear Sprint: Documented Progress (2024-2025)

The dramatic reduction in breakout time is the result of rapid and well-documented progress in several areas:

• Uranium Enrichment: Iran enriched uranium to 60% purity, a short technical step from the 90% level required for a nuclear weapon. IAEA reports from late 2024 even stated that Iran was approaching military-grade quality of 90%.

• Growing Stockpiles: According to the IAEA, Iran's stockpile of enriched uranium is 30 times the amount permitted under the nuclear deal, and it possesses enough fissile material for numerous nuclear devices. An Israeli military official was quoted as saying that Iran has enough fissile material for 15 bombs within days.

• Advanced Centrifuges and Fortified Facilities: Iran deployed more advanced and efficient centrifuges while simultaneously constructing new and deeply buried enrichment sites designed to be immune to conventional attacks.

• Non-Cooperation and Deception: For years, Iran has systematically refused to cooperate with IAEA inspectors and provide credible answers regarding traces of uranium found at undeclared, secret sites like Marivan, Varamin, and Turquzabad, proving a pattern of deception and concealment.

The Failure of the International Community: The IAEA Condemnation of June 2025

Iran's progress led to a diplomatic collapse. On June 12, 2025, the IAEA Board of Governors passed a historic resolution of condemnation, the first in nearly 20 years, officially stating that Iran was in violation of its non-proliferation commitments. This condemnation, despite its diplomatic importance, was seen in Israel as too little, too late. Iran's defiant response—announcing the construction of a third enrichment site—was the final straw that led to the decision for military action.

The Nuclear Logic for War

The Israeli leadership explicitly linked "Operation Rising Lion" to the "clear and present danger" of a nuclear Iran. Prime Minister Netanyahu's statement that he had already instructed the military to prepare for the operation in November 2024, shortly after Nasrallah's assassination, highlights the direct connection between the erosion of the proxy threat and the urgent need to address the nuclear threat.

The data reveals a dangerous, self-fueling feedback loop where nuclear advancements and conventional military actions reinforce one another. Iran's nuclear progress crossed an Israeli "red line," leading to a massive preemptive military strike. In turn, that same Israeli attack, which Iran's conventional forces failed to prevent, provided hardliners in Tehran with the ultimate argument: only a nuclear deterrent can prevent future attacks. This situation creates immense pressure within Iran to cross the nuclear threshold and build a bomb as quickly as possible, a move that could provoke an even harsher response and drag the region into an all-out war.

Amidst this, the debate over whether Supreme Leader Khamenei has made a formal decision to build a bomb has become a dangerous distraction. While Western intelligence often focuses on the absence of such an official decision, Israel operates on the basis of capability. From the moment Iran possesses all the necessary components and has a zero breakout time, the period between a political decision and a functional weapon is too short to allow for an effective external response. As Netanyahu defined it, the danger is not a future decision, but the present capability, which constitutes a "clear and present danger to the survival of Israel."

Part III: The Arsenal of Destruction – Assessing Iran's Military Capabilities

This section presents a sober assessment of the conventional tools Iran possesses to threaten Israel, demonstrating that even without nuclear weapons, its ability to inflict immense damage is real.

Ballistic and Cruise Missile Force: A Credible Threat

Iran's missile arsenal is the largest and most diverse in the Middle East. It includes numerous systems capable of reaching any point in Israel:

• Liquid-Propellant Medium-Range Ballistic Missiles (MRBM): Shahab-3 (1,300 km), Ghadr-1 (1,950 km), Emad (1,700 km).

• Solid-Propellant Medium-Range Ballistic Missiles (MRBM): Sejjil (2,000 km), Kheibar Shekan (1,450 km), Khorramshahr (2,000 km).

• Cruise Missiles: Soumar (2,000-3,000 km), Paveh (1,650 km).

The Iranian missile program has undergone a revolution, shifting from systems primarily intended for spreading terror (inaccurate missiles aimed at cities) to legitimate military weapon systems. While older systems like the Shahab-1 had very low accuracy (Circular Error Probable, CEP, of 800-1,000 meters), newer systems from the Fateh-110 family and its derivatives have achieved accuracy levels of just 10 to 30 meters. This dramatic improvement in precision transforms the missiles from a crude deterrent into a tangible threat against specific military and strategic targets in Israel—air force bases, command centers, and critical infrastructure. The October 2024 attack, which explicitly targeted military bases and intelligence headquarters, is proof of this doctrinal shift.

The UAV Swarm: A Strategy of Saturation

Iran has developed an extensive UAV program, headlined by the Shahed-136 and other models, which are cheap, mass-produced, and have been operationally tested in Ukraine. The Iranian doctrine is to launch massive swarms of UAVs and cruise missiles simultaneously with ballistic missiles, aiming to confuse, saturate, and overwhelm multi-layered air defense systems like Israel's. Although this strategy largely failed in April 2024, it remains a central part of Iran's war planning.

Key Iranian Strike Systems Capable of Reaching Israel

System Name	Type	Estimated Range (km)	Estimated Warhead (kg)	Fuel Type	Accuracy (CEP, meters)	Operational Status
Shahab-3	Ballistic Missile (MRBM)	1,300	~1,000	Liquid	2,500	Operational
Ghadr-1	Ballistic Missile (MRBM)	1,950	750-800	Liquid	300	Development/Operational
Emad	Ballistic Missile (MRBM)	1,700	750	Liquid	500	Development/Operational
Sejjil	Ballistic Missile (MRBM)	2,000	700	Solid	Unknown	Operational
Khorramshahr	Ballistic Missile (MRBM)	2,000	1,800	Liquid	~1,500 (unimproved)	Development
Kheibar Shekan	Ballistic Missile (SRBM/MRBM)	1,450	500	Solid	"Pinpoint" (claimed)	Operational
Fateh-110/313	Ballistic Missile (SRBM)	300-500	450-650	Solid	10-100	Operational
Soumar / Paveh	Cruise Missile	1,650-3,000	Unknown	Jet	High (guided)	Operational
Shahed-136	Loitering Munition / "Suicide Drone"	~2,500	~40	Piston Engine	High (GPS-guided)	Operational

The "Axis of Resistance": A Multi-Front Campaign

Iran wages a multi-front war against Israel through its proxies:

• Hezbollah (Lebanon): Since October 8, 2023, the organization has launched over 8,800 rockets, missiles, and UAVs toward Israel. The escalation peaked in September 2024 and led to an Israeli ground incursion into Lebanon.

• The Houthis (Yemen): Since October 19, 2023, the Houthis have been conducting a campaign of missile and UAV launches toward Eilat and central Israel. They use long-range systems, including improved Scud missiles and the "Palestine-2" missile.

• Iraqi and Syrian Militias: The "Islamic Resistance in Iraq" has carried out dozens of UAV and cruise missile attacks against northern and southern Israel, with their frequency and lethality increasing significantly in late 2024.

Part IV: The Rhetoric of Annihilation – Documenting the Declared Intent

This section demonstrates how the military and nuclear threats are supported by a consistent, official, and high-level ideology calling for the destruction of Israel.

The Founding Ideology: Non-Recognition and Elimination

Since the 1979 Islamic Revolution, Iran's official policy has been the non-recognition of Israel's right to exist, viewing it as an illegitimate "Zionist regime" that must be destroyed. This is not marginal rhetoric but a cornerstone of the regime's identity.

In the Words of the Supreme Leader: Direct threats from Ayatollah Ali Khamenei underscore the depth of the hostility:

• Following the Israeli strike in June 2025, Khamenei declared that Israel should "expect a harsh punishment" and that it had "prepared a bitter and painful fate for itself and will definitely receive it."

• He warned that "Jerusalem will face a severe punishment" and that Iran would not let Israel "escape safely from this great crime."

Threats from the Revolutionary Guards and the Government: Senior military and government officials echo the message:

• President Masoud Pezeshkian: Threatened a "legitimate and powerful response" that would make Israel "regret its act of folly."

• IRGC Commander Hossein Salami (eliminated in June 2025): Was known for his threats against Israel, warning that Iran would "open the gates of hell" if attacked.

• New IRGC Commander Mohammad Pakpour (appointed June 2025): Warned that "the criminal and illegitimate Zionist regime will suffer a bitter and painful fate with immense destructive consequences" and that "with God's help, the gates of hell will soon be opened upon this child-killing regime."

• Commander of Iran's Army Abdolrahim Mousavi (February 2025): Stated that Iran "will attack their [U.S. and Israeli] security without hesitation" if attacked.

Connecting Words to Deeds: The Credibility of the Threats

Iran's threats cannot be dismissed as empty rhetoric. The analysis shows a clear pattern of threats backed by actions. The promises of revenge after the attack in Damascus led directly to the massive missile attack in April 2024. The vows to avenge the assassinations of Haniyeh and Nasrallah led to an even larger missile attack in October 2024. This pattern proves that when the Iranian leadership makes public threats, it follows through with significant military action, lending immense credibility to its current and future threats. Despite the existence of internal political factions in Iran, the call for Israel's destruction is a unifying and fundamental principle that cuts across all centers of power in the regime—from the Supreme Leader, through the presidency, to the military-ideological core of the Revolutionary Guards. The willingness to sacrifice hundreds of expensive ballistic missiles and risk a devastating response proves that this ideology is not intended for internal consumption alone but is a driving force behind Iran's foreign and security policy.

Conclusion: A Credible and Present Danger

The combination of three documented factors—a proven willingness for direct military confrontation, a nuclear program on the verge of weaponization, and an official ideology of destruction—poses an existential, tangible, and immediate threat to the State of Israel. The events of 2024-2025 have removed all ambiguity. The threat is no longer theoretical or confined to the shadows; it is overt, multi-dimensional, and immediate. This analysis clearly shows that Iran's threats must be taken with the utmost seriousness, as the regime in Tehran has proven that it is resolute in its hostility and possesses ever-growing capabilities to realize it.